Google’s first production server rack, circa 1998
Source: http://flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/157722937/
Author: Steve Jurvetson
Those who suggest Facebook is a bad investment or a short-lived Internet phenom, I’m reminded of the quote attributed to Samuel Clemens, “The Rumors of My Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated.”
- Facebook’s IPO debacle: greed, hubris, incompetence.
- Facebook’s IPO Debacle, Day 3: Un-Friended and Dis-Liked on Wall Street.
- Exclusive: Fidelity facing “thousands” hit by Facebook woes.
I’m continually reminded by a statement I occasionally found annoying, “perception is reality”. I’m not invested, connected or do business in any way with Facebook. I’m also not an expert in business, finance and investments. I think the market has Facebook all wrong, and here’s why.
The right ideas at the right time. It’s possible to be ahead of your time and not be a financial success or have the basic idea fully worked out. The execution lacks evolution. In the Internet world one could argue that would be MySpace or perhaps Classmates. They are broadly similar to Facebook but lack the features necessary to compete at the level of Facebook. Yahoo sadly, is a historical example, perhaps more so than MySpace, that demonstrates starting out strong doesn’t necessarily keep you in the lead.
Facebook differs from those examples in that it has demonstrated not only the initial excitement of a widely publicly accepted Internet application, it has evolved through association with other popular attractions in shared games such as Farmville . It has thematically improved presentation and a few times where it stumbled, Mark Zuckerberg leadership has backed off the introduction of a new feature.
The leadership of Facebook is young like Apple was in its early years which suggests strong progressive technology will continue making it a better long-term investment than perhaps other currently attractive and perhaps more settled technology stocks.
Facebook enjoys a wider demographic than many other interesting and useful Internet businesses. Twitter comes to mind in comparison. Twitter has caught on well but there are many people less adoptive of newer technology that find Facebook connections easier and reaches an audience encompassing those who play Angry Birds and those who post pictures of their favorite grandchild or special pet.
There are many arguments that suggest Facebook duped the investment community or the stock was over hyped. Keep in mind those with whom make such remarks are often those entrusted with promoting or advising on investment. They are the very ones who now have to look at themselves and ask the tough questions; were we duped, is FB a bad buy?
My thoughts are these; we live in a time where expectations for profit or investment come over night. The demand for instant gratification is also our undoing. The very core idea of buying stock has been the premise to hold long-term. So, the stock came out with a higher opening than it currently sells. This shouldn’t come to savvy investors as a revelation. I recall Yahoo once sold for over $100 per share. Google didn’t lose sight of their mission and I believe Facebook has an equivalent firm grasp.
Smart people are in the right place at the right time in finding opportunity. They do that because educated guesses are based on information which helps position people to be in the right place at the right time. Investors need to remember not to bite the hand that feeds them. Facebook is here to stay and will continue to evolve.
Related articles
- The inside story: How Facebook panicked and botched its IPO (venturebeat.com)
- It Was ‘Smart Money’ That Got Burnt In $FB IPO (siliconvalleywatcher.com)
